The Dawn of a New Era in the Saga of Digital Transformation; Some Things Never Change!

This is a work in progress and the theme of my working paper. I am sharing my thoughts and would love to hear yours.

Global Digital Transformation began with landlines and is an ongoing journey that traversed mobiles, the internet, and social media. Now we have highly sophisticated virtual worlds with Augmented Reality, Mixed Reality and Immersive Gaming, and the Metaverse is our future. It is remarkable that at every stage, there was a new technology waiting in the wings - beguiling to customers but a threat to incumbents who sought to acquire it, impede its progress or crush it.

Having viewed this journey from every angle as a policy maker, programme implementor, regulator, public policy professional, legal advisor and professor. I find it piquantly thought-provoking that many stakeholders and the incumbents are either oblivious or ignore the writing on the wall. 

Would things be different if they genuinely acknowledged and adapted rather than resisted the onslaught of innovation, competition and regulation? Let me explain that slightly enigmatic comment.

Regulation is always playing catch up with technology. That is the way of the world. There is a good reason for this. Very recently, in a discussion with a brilliant gaming mind, I realised that much as we might want to preempt and correct every consumer harm or anti-competitive conduct, regulators cannot afford to get it wrong. I am a staunch believer in eschewing market interventions unless they are needed and carefully calibrated to rectify distortions without collateral damage. Simply put, it is safer not to regulate than to over-regulate or regulate in haste. 

Thus, regulators take their time to gather information, analyse the impact of new technologies, consult stakeholders and conduct impact assessments. In the interim, the parties aggrieved by incumbents' harmful or anti-competitive conduct go to court, and a wealth of illuminating jurisprudence helps regulators bridge the information asymmetries. (The gap that incumbents strive artfully to foster and preserve). 

Finally, comprehensive consumer and competition-friendly regulation emerges to curb harm and clip the wings of powerful incumbents. The new technology can now flourish. 

However, the seeds of the next cycle have already been sprouting. The innovators or challengers are not all equal. While battling incumbents' tactics to suppress them, some had already grown relatively large and popular. They are the ones who were keeping courts and regulators busy fronting the resistance. They now truly take off. 

Compared to their counterparts, they have the advantage of time, consumer numbers, loyalty, and better ideas, and regulators see no reason to curb their growth and monitor their conduct. In any case, so busy was the regulatory machinery tackling the present incumbents that they paid scant attention to and did not fully understand or could not entirely anticipate the more disturbing aspects of the new technology. If they try, information asymmetries and doubts nurtured by the new incumbents keep them hesitant. 

When they do act, harmful behaviour has already played out, another novel innovation is struggling on the sidelines, and the cycle repeats itself. Sounds familiar?

India Mobile Congress 2020
 Shaping Sustainable Digital Future through Telecom and Technology
10.12.2020

Here are my interventions at this event as a panellist: 

A. On the subject of How Digital Communications can contribute towards the achievement of SDGs and is there any change in perspective on account of the pandemic.

If there is one thing that we have learned from the ongoing pandemic it would be that digital connectivity is absolutely essential. In a situation where you are physically separated and distanced only digital connectivity can ensure business continuity and socio-economic stability and growth. Work from home, study from home, shop from home, remote monitoring of health and logistics and smart factories etc., all these are impossible without quality connectivity.

Further, the pandemic has also underlined that this inevitable requirement of digital connectivity also exacerbates the implications of digital divides. The digital have nots really suffer. The efforts of the Government to reach out and alleviate the problems of people in crisis too can be frustrated if they are not digitally connected.

I can tell you that post the pandemic, there is a strong and renewed emphasis on both tapping ICTs for better citizen services, health and education, logistics and agriculture etc. and also on universal digital connectivity.

Even in the absence of the pandemic, there has been a huge emphasis on digital connectivity & ICT as is evident from the vision of Digital India and the Government’s emphasis on digital financial inclusion, digital identity, digital education and health, the Direct Benefit Transfer Mission and the underlying ICT infrastructure. Now we have a new Digital Health Mission and a commitment to connect all villages with fibre.

The release of the National Digital Communications Policy in 2018, the emphasis on BharatNet and the launch of the National Broadband Mission are all on account of the clear relationship between ICTs and the achievement of SDGs be they related to poverty or equality, health or education, employment or environment.

Telecom penetration has multiplier effects across the economy and in an increasingly digital future, it will be critical to enable expeditious achievement of SDGs. Each line of action to achieve an SDG has a digital counterpart. Thus if regional disparities are sought to be reduced by targeting 115 Aspirational Districts, The Deptt.  of Telecom has special schemes to provide connectivity to the Aspirational Districts. This is because ICTs are fundamental for other government efforts to fructify.

 And of course all the SDGs are related. Thus, smart agriculture and logistics can help to end hunger, digital health and education can directly impact the related SDGs but also end poverty and reduce gender disparities. Better land and water management through ICTs and sustainable development through smart grids can help reduce natural disasters which otherwise aggravate poverty and inequalities.

Digital connectivity is a great transparency enhancer and can give citizens a voice and provide a much-needed feedback loop to inform policymaking. It can thus empower citizens and strengthen justice.

In particular, I am a great believer in the power of digital connectivity to reduce inequality and bring about gender parity. We have heard of the adverse impact of the pandemic on women. Women’s education, employment and safety can all be greatly enhanced through digital connectivity. Even today, female ownership of mobiles or digital literacy is very low. Further, accessible ICTs hold great promise for persons with disabilities are needed to care for the aged especially in situations like the ongoing pandemic.

 B.  On What can be Done to Hasten Connectivity?

There are many fronts on which this problem is being tackled and can be tackled.

First connectivity must be universal. We still have a very skewed penetration. Rural broadband penetration lags at around 30% of the population and even teledensity is less than 60%. Then as mentioned earlier there is the question of equal access for women and Persons with Disabilities. This requires affordable devices, accessible devices and digital literacy.

Second is the quality of our broadband. We still lag behind on speed. We have an average speed of about 12MBPS against an ambitious target in the National Broadband Mission of delivering  50 MBPS.

There are major problems in the deployment of telecom infrastructure due to Right of Way issues. These need to be tackled. At present less than 40% of our towers are fiberized and we need many more towers. The national Broadband Mission aims to almost double the number of towers. Adequate spectrum must be made available to improve quality and allow for new technologies and innovation.

 If we are to tap the benefits of 5G, Artificial Intelligence, robotics, augmented reality and Virtual Reality to make use of innovative new applications across socio-economic sectors we need to address these issues. New telecom technologies have very different deployment architecture and the regulatory the environment must keep pace.

 Then we have an over-reliance on terrestrial communications and especially mobile broadband. We need multi-modal connectivity for redundancy and ubiquity. We cannot expect to provide broadband connectivity to 100% rural and remote areas through only terrestrial means. We must strengthen and expand our satellite broadband sector.

NITI Aayog is working with DoT to expedite the implementation of BharatNet through Public Private Partnership which would give a greater role to the private sector thereby also ensuring induction of the latest technology and greater uptake or usage.

NITI Aayog is similarly supporting the National Broadband Mission.

We have worked with DoT on Right of Way issues to expedite fibre rollouts and telecom infrastructure deployment. On the one hand, states and local authorities and on the other hand Central Government Ministries like Railways, Highways, Power and Natural Gas, Environment and Forest etc. need to accept the criticality of telecom infrastructure and actively facilitate its roll out.

As a part of the National Broadband Mission, DoT is creating a Broadband Readiness Index for states which would measure infrastructure availability and positive policy environment and this should hopefully sensitize them in this regard.  Broadband for All is a national imperative.

 We are also aiding them to open up the satellite communications sector so as to spread broadband to rural and remote areas, ensure robust multimodal connectivity and to tap the full potential of IoTs and location based services.

The whole regulatory environment for telecom needs to be conducive to greater investment, innovation and rapid deployment.  

There needs to be considerable simplification of the licensing regime. Greater ease of doing business and a more technology-neutral approach are the need of the hour.  Complicated ex-ante systems need to be replaced with Trust based authorizations combined with effective deterrence.

A case in point is the recent very progressive change in Other Service Provider Licensing regime which will greatly benefit our IT services sector and facilitate remote working. This was a case of the pandemic highlighting the need for changes which may otherwise have taken a long time to materialize.

We should use this crisis to bring about many other such reforms. For example, the pandemic highlighted the need for online recharges, universality of smartphones, and nationwide ration cards and subsidy transferability.

I believe that India’s Universal Service Obligation Fund too can be used to much greater effect to encourage infrastructure creation and innovative new schemes for universal broadband connectivity. Its Rules allow for this and it has the required corpus.

The pandemic has also heightened the need for secure and resilient communications which means enhancing our presence in global supply chains and greater participation in IPR and standard-setting as far as advanced telecom technologies are concerned.

In summary, I can assure you that while there was always a huge push towards digital connectivity and applications and awareness of their impact.There is now a strong and renewed emphasis on this critical aspect of national development.

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Trust is an Integral element of Global Competitiveness in the Digital Age-The Huawei issue and Lessons for India

5G and the Huawei issue

The world is gearing up to prepare for the promise of 5G. This new digital communications technology is slated to make it possible to enhance broadband download speeds to 20 Gbps and provide benefits such as enhanced mobile broadband, massive machine-type communications and ultra-reliable low latency communications.

 In the meanwhile, a trade war has broken out between the USA and China over Chinese 5G equipment due to the purported security threat emanating from 5G devices and equipment manufactured in China. The USA has placed China on the entity list and Chinese Huawei is to be deprived of chips from US firms like Intel, Qualcomm. Micron and Google's Android OS. 

This is not a bilateral issue but has global ramifications. It is reported  that,

5G will offer hugely faster data speeds than today's mobile technology, which is important for consumers. But 5G will also be the technology that ensures artificial intelligence functions seamlessly, that driverless cars don't crash, that machines in automated factories can communicate flawlessly in real-time around the world, and that nearly every device on earth will be wired together. 5G will be, simply put, the central nervous system of the 21st-century economy (emphasis supplied)

There is apparently a fear of hidden Trojan horses or backdoors that may make networks vulnerable to Chinese espionage, given the nature of state control over Chinese firms. Though Chinese companies have vociferously denied the possibility, even European nations are likely to avoid Chinese equipment in their networks' core limiting it to non-contentious parts only. While it is often reported that there is little evidence of such security threats and that the issue is rooted in geopolitical compulsions, what does becomes apparent is the importance of Trust as an integral component of global competitiveness especially in the digital world.

India's Aspiration

More than ever before, as more and more economic activity shifts to the digital medium and the data that flows on digital communication networks is reckoned to be increasingly the most precious commodity (likened to oil or water), India is becoming acutely aware of the need to invest in creating a conducive eco-system for greater self-sufficiency in digital communications in terms of Indian ownership of IPR, participation in global standards and in design and manufacturing. Indian firms want a conducive policy environment to play a greater role in the global supply chain. As a nation, we want to harness the power of 5G networks, Internet of Things/Machine to Machine communications and Artificial Intelligence to transform our economy and quality of life. We are confident in our skills and entrepreneurial abilities and have a large domestic market to absorb digital products and services. With the right regulatory environment and policy support, we will hopefully realise our dream.

Lesson from China's  Journey

We often look at China's remarkable success in the sphere of digital R&D and manufacturing for possible lessons. Its dominance in patents, its high tech, and low-cost telecom equipment industry has allowed it to compete with top-ranking firms in the US and Europe.  Huawei has, after all, become the world's largest telecom equipment company.

 It is reported that,

Having posted more than $107 billion in revenue from operations in some 170 countries last year…., Huawei controls 29 percent of the global telecom equipment market. In the Asia-Pacific region, that figure is 43 percent, and in Latin America it's 34 percent, according to figures provided by the Dell'Oro Group, a market research firm....Huawei leads in 5G SEP ownership and dominates global discussion on 5G standards

However, we must also be careful lest we become vulnerable to the same arguments that are being used to thwart Huawei's progress.

If India is to retain its advantage as a software giant and venture into other parts on the supply side of the digital value chain, we must put in place world-class regulation that assures buyers and business partners that we are a trustworthy market and that so are Indian market players. Whether it is the regulation of individual sectors, financial regulation, competition law or privacy and data protection or FDI policy, regulation of Intellectual Property or taxation, we must have world-class laws and regulatory institutions and credible dispute resolution systems.

Analysis of the potential disruptive impact of the present US-China trade war on markets in both countries reveals that no matter how large our domestic market, sustained growth requires participation in global supply chains. 

Thus, to be competitive, a nation's credibility as a reliable place to do business is ultimately as important as its technological prowess or productivity or cost advantage and this is especially true in the digital era where ubiquity and the intensity of usage enhance vulnerability manifold rendering digital security both critical and of paramount importance.

We can harness our reputation and strength as a trustworthy and robust democracy to give us a competitive edge but only as long as we ensure that we are perceived globally as a nation that will uphold the rule of the law. We must also ensure that we build a reputation of fair and transparent regulation and independent, competent and credible regulatory institutions. This can be our biggest strength. We need to invest not only in R&D for technology but also for building regulatory capacities. As the digital era transforms every aspect of our lives and given that we want to harness the digital opportunity to metamorphisise into a technological superpower, we must engage continuously in R&D in cutting edge digital laws and regulations. We need a strong institutional framework that ensures that regulation in India is insulated from short term considerations and inspires national and international confidence.