Mexico Earthquake-Lessons for Indian Authorities and Indian Telecoms

On the afternoon of September 19, 2017 Mexico City was struck by an earthquake of 7.1 magnitude that injured thousands, rendered thousands homeless and killed more than 200 people in and around the city. This earthquake was preceded by one in Chiapas, Mexico, twelve days earlier, that killed 100 people. Ironically the city had in fact commemorated at 11 AM on September 19, 2017 the terrible 8.1 magnitude earthquake of 1985 that also occurred on September 19, and killed 5000 people apart from causing widespread damage to property.  

As luck would have it, I was flying towards Mexico City on 19.9.2017 when the earthquake struck. As the Benito Juárez Airport was temporarily shut down, our airplane was diverted to Houston, Texas till it got clearance to land in Mexico City. By that time, about 7 hours had past post the occurrence of the earthquake. My colleague and I had some difficulty finding a hotel as the one we had a booking in had been evacuated. My first night there was disturbed by evacuation drills which the authorities had ordered and there was no air-conditioning. I could hear sirens throughout the night. However, even so, I was amazed at the calm I saw around me. The electricity was up as were the telephone lines and internet. 

The next morning, we visited the venue of the conference we had traveled to attend and as expected under the circumstances, we found that it had been cancelled. The Government had declared a national emergency. A tour of the city revealed that while there were relatively few cars and pedestrians to be seen, the city was quietly gearing up for rescue / relief work. I saw many volunteers walking, moving in cars and aggregated in and around the Zocalo or Main Square, where water and other rations were being organised. Even as the television relayed videos of the desperate ongoing efforts to rescue people trapped under collapsed buildings, in general, for a capital that had just been struck by a major earthquake I found that people were calm and there was no sense of panic or chaos, at least in the areas I had visited.

Reportedly,  as per preliminary estimates the cost of the damages may be around USD 2 billion. Its going to be a long haul for Mexico as far as reconstruction and recovery go, but it is well prepared. The government has already started making electronic transfers to the victims. I had in fact studied Mexico’s Disaster Funding as a part of my work at the National Disaster Management Authority of India.   India has statutory funds created for disaster relief and immediate rehabilitation (The National and State Disaster Response Funds (NDRF & SDRFs)), and has a statutory provision for a National Disaster Mitigation Fund (that has not been created), but unlike Mexico, India lacks a dedicated funding mechanism for post disaster asset reconstruction. Thus, in India, reconstruction would invariably come at the expense of forgoing other committed expenditure, including that earmarked for developmental activities. Further, the Indian Government does not tap into risk transfer through insurance of public assets or through reinsurance mechanisms. India is vulnerable to both water and climate related disasters as well as geologically related disasters. As indicated in the below mentioned Discussion Paper, a Lloyds study (2004-11) finds that 85% of disaster related losses are uninsured in India. The overall low penetration on non-life insurance generally implies dependence on government funding /subsidies in the aftermath of disasters and eventually, this translates into a burden on tax payers.

In contrast, Mexico has a comprehensive ex ante mechanism for funding post disaster relief and reconstruction by way of the FONDEN, apart from a funding mechanism for mitigation through FORPDEN.

FONDEN’s operation relies on a clear framework for damage and loss assessments, resource allocation, funding channels and implementation timelines between federal and state government agencies after a disaster. This allows the Government of Mexico to manage emergency response and reconstruction funds with efficiency and transparency, while generating trust and discipline…..[b]y Law, FONDEN and its related funds (FOPREDEN and CADENA, a vehicle for agricultural insurance) must receive no less than 0.4 percent of the annual budget (around US$800 million in 2011), including any uncommitted funds in the Trust from the previous fiscal year. 

As funding requirements can vary, apart from risk retention by way of above mentioned budgetary allocations, FONDEN is also allowed to pay risk premiums towards insurance as a means of risk transfer. The Mexican Government has also issued multi-catastrophe bonds and has an indemnity-based insurance for FONDEN losses. All government infrastructure is compulsorily insured.(source GFDRR)

In India, the post disaster relief expenditure of states is often more than funding available through SDRF and NDRF. Further as stated above, the Government meets reconstruction expenditure from the general budget. In the event of a major disaster this would be supplemented by aid or external borrowing. As suggested in a Discussion Paper on Disaster Relief and Risk Transfer  that I had co-authored while at NDMA, we could allow the states to use a portion of the SDRF to buy insurance  towards relief and rehabilitation (over and above that available through the SDRF scheme) and towards reconstruction of damaged infrastructure. Further, the National Government could buy parametric insurance to safeguard against rarer, high impact disasters by using a dedicated portion of NDRF funds for insurance premium. (For further information, please read my article on the subject Reference: Gulati, Archana G., Financing Disaster Risk Reduction - The Indian Context (November 1, 2013). Presentation to the Expert Group Meeting on Effective Strategies for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, 26-28 November 2013. )

This paper had also suggested other funding mechanisms such as compulsory disaster insurance for private homes, government property and revenue generating public utilities and extension of the scope of the existing public liability insurance to include public places such as hotels, cinema halls and other places where people congregate at events. Incentives by way of tax deduction for premiums could be provided. As the quantum of premiums would be linked to risk, compulsory insurance would also provide an incentive for disaster risk reduction or mitigation activities. This would also ensure that relief / reconstruction costs do not get passed on to the government in their entirety and that development related funds are not diverted for reconstruction activities.

Coming back to telecommunications, apart from the fact that in today's world, telecoms  are the lifeblood of economic and social activity, the government is also investing huge amounts in creation of public assets by way of Digital India and the National Optic Fibre Network. However, as per usual practice these assets are not insured. The Department of Telecommunication’s Crisis Management SOP 2017 and other disaster related documentation too are silent on funding for rehabilitation and reconstruction. Needless to say, disaster resilience of telecoms infrastructure is absolutely critical as disaster alerts, rescue efforts electronic funds transfers etc. all rely proximately on the unhindered continuation of telecoms connectivity. However, given the important role of telecoms and especially broadband in economic activity, we also need to evolve a comprehensive strategy for ex ante funding of damaged assets to avoid the adverse consequences of slow and expensive economic recovery, post disasters. This should invariably include a combination of risk retention (budgetary allotments) and risk transfer through insurance.

A presentation on the above can be viewed here.

The Future of Wireless Communication?

An extremely interesting article from the Economist hints at the possibility of bidding farewell to electrical signals as the prime means of wireless communication.

The article explains that chemical based communication as found in nature-animals do it (your dog leaving urine samples replete with telling "chemical markers" at every nook and corner during his walks or internal communications within the human body are examples), could be used to transmit data which would be read by sensors.

Present trials are crude at best, with very low speeds, but there is hope for higher data transmission becoming a reality in the future especially if messages can be encoded in the molecules themselves.

A particularly useful application of such technology is in disaster related search and rescue operations where the situation does not permit normal mobile communications. This happens when a building collapses as mobile services are not of much under the debris. However a group of robots could go under the collapsed material and leave each other chemical messages about what areas were searched and what has been found.

Another lesson to learn is that we should not preemptively put all our eggs in one basket  assuming that a particular technology is the best-please see my post titled "Disruptive Technology and Public Funding of High Speed Broadband Networks." under the label Technology

Renewable Energy for Powering Smart Phones

The Times of India today has an article that reports  that scientists have developed bio-batteries that use sugar to generate electricity enough to power cell phones for 10 days. These batteries are also lighter. In the Indian scenario this would be a boon. At present rural areas face heavy power cuts and people resort to unconventional means such using tractor batteries to charge cell phones.

The smart phone with its potential for job search, education, data, e-commerce  and e-government applications is the primary device though which the average Indian would access ICTs and ICT enabled services. Making it last is vital. Long lasting batteries are also vital from the disaster communications viewpoint.

Worship Worthy Connectivity

Its been a while since I blogged.

 Finally found inspiration in a story about a man who was saved from a tigress attack by mobile connectivity. In rural Madhya Pradesh (a state of India), on the outskirts of a national park, two villagers clambered up a tree to escape a tigress. The humble cell phone was how they could be rescued. So now the cell phone in question is being worshiped by its owner as yet another avatar or proof of God's presence.

In another article the FCC's drive for universal broadband connectivity is being seen as a shot in the arm for public safety communications.in USA.

ICTs have all the answers.

Technology and Universal Service

I have two pieces of information to share. Both of them are related to technology and  telecom penetration.

The first is the welcome initiative on the part of the  Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in exploring  the possibility of providing SMS-based mobile banking through a single application on all types of handsets.

It is reported that,

"A Technical Committee on Mobile Banking has been set up to "examine the options/alternatives including the feasibility of using encrypted SMS-based funds transfer using an application that can run on any type of handset for expansion of mobile banking in the country," the central bank said.The panel will conduct an in-depth study of the challenges faced by banks in taking mobile banking forward to the desired level. At the end of July, there were about 70 lakh users of mobile banking, which is currently offered by 78 banks.The panel will also examine "any other optimum solution" that would take mobile banking to every nook and corner of the country, in addition to drawing a road map for implementing the solutions or options recommended."

With mobile penetration outstripping land lines in India and smart phones becoming affordable, this measure could greatly address the yawning financial inclusion gap in the country. As an interesting aside, the promotion of mobile banking  is identified by the Economist as one possible way to reduce channelization of rural household savings into financially less productive assets such as cows, in India! The article is called Udder People's Money and makes for interesting reading. Please also see my previous post on mobile VAS.

The second is news about the use of  television and radio channels to transmit cellular signals when systems are pushed beyond capacity as during a disaster. "Mai Hassan, a PhD student has managed to [change] the shape of the wireless signal so she could transmit on channels that use radio or television frequencies. She then had to change the direction of transmission away from the original channel. Instead of using traditional antennas, which transmit signals in all directions , she used smart antennas in mobile phones. Smart antennas transmit signals in a single direction and can steer the beam to any direction. By manipulating the direction of the cellular signals, Hassan was able to transmit calls and texts to a receiver while avoiding any interference with the original radio and televisions signals."

Please see my previous posts on disaster communications. I am of the view that keeping the public (rather than only official first responders) connected is of critical importance during disasters.

Rapidly Deployable Disaster Resilient Communications-EU's ABSOLUTE Project

The ABSOLUTE project supported by EU's CORDIS programme promises to be capable of "Guaranteeing Communication Coverage In Event Of Disaster"

It is reported that,

ABSOLUTE, which kicked off in October 2012, aims to design and validate a network capable of providing flexible, secure and resilient broadband services. Telecommunication infrastructures play a key role in recovery operations in the aftermath of an emergency. In most cases, however, terrestrial infrastructure cannot guarantee reliable services for citizens and rescue teams, while current public safety networks simply cannot provide sufficient capacity for broadband applications.

This is what ABSOLUTE seeks to address. By using rapidly deployable flexible aerial platforms with embedded 4G EnodeBs (hardware connected to the mobile phone network that communicates directly with mobile handsets), this industry-driven project aims to show that resilient communication networks can be quickly assembled to provide secure and reliable broadband service over areas affected by large-scale unexpected events, such as natural disasters.

Please see previous posts on Disaster Communications and Emergency services including a post about a similar Google project called Loon.

Perhaps the Ministry of Communications & Technology, India could take a leaf out of EU's book to create a programme like CORDIS to support such innovative industry-government collaborations.

Well Organised Emergency Communications Capabilities

The recent events in Uttarakhand, India where floods have wreaked havoc destroying thousands of  lives and livelihoods, sweeping away whole villages, roads and mobile towers leaving thousands people stranded and in need of rescue, highlights the importance of preparedness, mitigation and meticulous planning for disaster management (DM). One aspect of this planning is emergency communications.

India is now beginning to take cognizance of  areas like single emergency number and priority call routing. However,  instead of a piecemeal approach, a more holistic approach would be far more effective.

Lets examine the issue of Priority Call Routing first. Please also see my previous blog at http://ictsforall.blogspot.in/2013/06/universal-access-to-emergency-services.html

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's (TRAI) analysis as seen from its consultation paper  was as follows;

 TRAI’s reasons for the need for priority call routing during disasters include inter alia: 

• The wide variety of radio equipment used by various public safety organisations is frequently incompatible, preventing communication between responders.
• In extreme circumstances, official public safety systems may fail.
• Civil networks often provide greater capability for data communications than their public safety counterparts. The latter are often provided with very limited transmission capacity which is not upgraded as quickly as civil networks.
• NGOs and private sector responders play a critical role in response but may not have access to public safety networks. Often during disasters the civilian telephone networks are not so much destroyed as congested into uselessness. This can paralyze official response during disasters.

Based upon on the above premises, the consultation paper focuses primarily on network congestion issue and attempts to find ways and means to ensure that network congestion bottlenecks are eased for official and unofficial agencies involved in response and recovery.

Solutions suggested by TRAI: TRAI has suggested that one possible solution is network dimensioning (core network, POI circuits) in a manner that facilitates handling of increased volume of traffic during disasters. Needless to say, while telecommunication networks are dimensioned to meet mandated quality of service (QoS) standards keeping in view normal estimates of peak traffic, dimensioning to handle disasters would involve extra costs which telecom service providers may be reluctant to bear. The second option the TRAI has suggested is priority call routing for personnel involved in response and recovery. 

TRAI's analysis accepts that a  resilient telecommunication networks  (so as to cater to communications during disasters/ emergencies), would include (a) proper network  dimensioning, (b) emergency communication alternatives like satellite radio, ham radios and (c) a comprehensive strategy to rebuild or repair lost infrastructure. This is however considered to be a time consuming and costly exercise and hence priority call routing is suggested as an immediately implementable and less costly solution. 

TRAI goes on to describe:

a) The United States Government’s emergency phone service for the National Security for emergency preparedness community to communicate over the existing public switched telephone network (PSTN) with a high likelihood of call completion even during network congestion or disruption with the help of enhancements based upon existing commercial technology. This is called   Government Emergency Telecommunication Service (GETS) in case of landline systems. A similar system for wireless networks is the Wireless Priority Service (WPS). GETS and WPS are authentication based priority call routing systems but do not pre-empt on-going calls or preclude public use of the civilian network. 

b) Canada too has a WPS system similar to that of USA.

c) U.K’s Mobile Telecommunication Privileged Access Scheme (MTPAS). This system restricts civilian access to cellular phone networks during emergencies. It actively prevents civilian use from congesting the cellular networks, thus allowing emergency services personnel priority for communications. Entitled users are provided with special SIMs to enable communications, while normal users will receive a beep indicating that the network has been reserved for MPTAS –aware phones.

d) Certain other models of priority calling such as that based upon a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) concept or enhanced multilevel precedence and pre-emption (eMLPP) have also been discussed. While the former would entail dedication of part network resources to the virtual emergency operator during crisis, the latter pre-empts radio resources based on assigned priority. 

My Comments are as follows:

Regarding TRAI’s assumptions about present shortcoming of DM communications systems and remedies thereof: 

(i) Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) are already making efforts to expeditiously establish and enhance disaster communications networks by way of National Disaster Communications Network , National Emergency Communications Plan Phase I and II schemes. This is to be  backed by Disaster Management (DM) information systems such as National Database for Emergency Management (NDEM)and National Disaster Management Informatics System (NDMIS) (with inbuilt Vulnerability Analysis & Risk Assessment and Decision Support  tools). 

(ii) Given the existence of the above mentioned  schemes, the establishment of a high capacity, resilient, comprehensive and inter-operable (compatible) DM communications network cannot be assumed to be time consuming and beyond immediate financial capability of the Government. However, due care must be taken to ensure inter-operability of networks and devices.

(iii) It may be noted that these schemes provide for communications facilities for District authorities National Disaster Response Force personnel and other field level functionaries who are the first responders. It is felt that all government agencies expected to be involved in emergency/disaster relief must mandatorily use/have access to inter-operable NDCN elements and post disaster, they must switch over to this system to free up the public telecommunications network to others. Further, reliance should be placed on pre-planned network augmentation and ad hoc networks as already provided in NDCN, rather than planning for preemption of the PSTN.(I discuss this further below)

(iv) In the light of the above, it would be appropriate for NDMA, MHA and TRAI etc.to align their respective approaches to Disaster related communications. It would be advisable to prioritize the expeditious roll out of these schemes ensuring adequate capacity and inter-operability, rather than to plan for procedures to take over public communications which are critical means of alerting normal citizens/potential victims of disaster and can greatly aid in rescue and relief operations.

Regarding the importance of public networks for victims of disasters and hence need for a holistic approach

(i) The overall teledensity in India is 79.58% (July 2012). Urban teledensity is 169% and rural teledensity is 40%. Internet/broadband penetration though not high (23 million internet and 14.57 million broadband subscribers), is increasing rapidly (18% growth of broadband subscribers over previous year). Along with availability and affordability of telecommunications services, basic mobile usage literacy and e-literacy is on the rise among Indians no matter which economic strata they belong to. Ordinary citizens either as victims or others are the first to be present on the scene of the disaster. Needless to say, communications are critical to their survival as it becomes a lifeline to obtain help. Modern technology also enables caller location facilities which are invaluable for rescue and relief workers to locate injured/trapped individuals.

(ii) Rather than restricting public access to critical communications facilities, congestion on networks can be avoided by having efficient and reliable disaster warning and information systems including internet based message boards which the public would rely on rather than relying on interpersonal communications to make (anxiety) calls.  We should also be considering early warning systems like IPAWS as an integral part of emergency communications .

(Please also see my previous post on this issue at http://ictsforall.blogspot.in/2013/06/communications-imperatives-in-disaster.html)

(iii) Government should plan to make effective use of TV and radio and internet enabled social media forums and message boards to this end. service providerss can play a critical role through message boards and SMS broadcasts. Community education is also an important facet. 

(iv) TRAI can play a critical role in recommending/mandating the specific duties and overall cooperation of service providers in this regard. TRAI has not analysed the Telecommunications Service Priority (TSP)  programme under USA's Office of Emergency Communication's for emergency communications. This needs to be put in place as a part of licensing conditions of service providers. 

(iv) Relief and rescue agencies should be able to receive emergency calls from public on the public network but should use dedicated communications resources to interface with each other.

Thus some concrete measures for the present would be:

(i) While most telecommunications infrastructure is necessarily designed to withstand normal climatic conditions of an area, TRAI could carry out an analysis of specific area-wise vulnerabilities in conjunction with NDMA and DoT, and accordingly mandate special technical standards for network resilience and dimensioning of telecommunication networks in highly vulnerable areas. DoT’s Telecom Engineering Centre has already prepared draft guidelines in this regard which could be used/refined. The additional cost borne for retrofitting or supplementing existing network elements could be borne by the Government. All future infrastructure, networks and services after a specified cut off date would however mandatorily comply with revised technical specifications.

ii. The Universal Service Obligation Fund of India is administered by an USOF Administrator and functions as an attached office of Department of Telecommunications.  As USOF is mandated to provide telecommunications services to the people in rural and remote areas at reasonable and affordable prices, it follows that the existence of robust and disaster resilient networks falls within USOF’s mandate. Thus a USOF scheme could be designed for one time upgrading of existing networks in such vulnerable rural areas. 

iii. TRAI should take into cognizance the fact that world over, increasing importance is being give to universal access to emergency services (across platforms, including IP networks) and caller location services are being mandated. 

iv. The availability and accessibility of emergency communications to the aged and disabled is also something that even developing countries are according increasing priority to. These fall in the purview of Universal Service in most countries and TRAI may recommend necessary action to DoT. 

v. It may be noted that the USOF Administration is funding a nationwide rural optic fibre network (NOFN) (through an SPV namely, Bharat Broadband Network Ltd) to connect 2.5 lakh village panchyats (local self government offices). NOFN can serve as a valuable backbone in times of disasters/emergencies. With a view to provide high capacity DM related connectivity, NOFN can provide fibre in the last mile to critical rural structures such as schools, hospitals apart from local administration. While redundancy is most likely an inbuilt design feature for NOFN, it should be specially ensured that NOFN has the necessary disaster resilience to extent possible. 

vi. TRAI may consider making recommendations to DoT on a national Disaster Management Plan for Telecommunications Infrastructure and Services. This is mandated under Section 37 of the Disaster Management Act 2005. This would cover every stage of the Disaster Management cycle from mitigation to relief and early recovery. Business Continuity Planning for service providers should be a part of the same.

vii. Finally a holistic approach may be adopted rather than picking up only one segement of international best practices for emergency communications

Innovation is the key to Universal Service-Use of Low Power Base Stations in Africa

One of the biggest bottlenecks to provision of mobile services in rural areas in developing countries is the non availability of power. In India diesel generators are used in rural areas. This  implies  interruption in service in case of disruption in diesel supply-a common problem in remote areas and environmental pollution. While renewable energy solutions like solar panels are being deployed, these are costly especially when serving conventional mobile towers and base stations.

The deployment of low power base stations  is a good solution in such cases. One such device is being used in Zambia as reported by David Talbot of Communications News at

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/515346/a-tiny-cell-phone-transmitter-takes-root-in-rural-africa/#comments

A related article on Ushahidi, a device for crisis communications may also be of interest particularly from an Emergency Communications view point.

Innovation is the Key to Universal Service-Google's Loon Project

This project is interesting as it firstly offers solutions for rural areas which may be very useful for low population density  pockets-this  may seen from the link Google to Provide Internet Access Remotely and secondly it offers a possibility of quick deployment of a post disaster communications network as is detailed in Google's Loon Project Puts Balloon Technology in Spotlight

Communications Imperatives in Disaster Situations

It is heartening to note that Indian Telecommunications Companies are coming forward to assist in post disaster communications in the flood ravaged state of Uttarakhand. Today's Economic Times carries an article titled Telcos help track last call records of victims which explains how major service providers are setting up free help lines for tracking last calls made by victims and free public calling offices (PCOs), topping up prepaid balances for free and setting up portable base stations etc. 

While these efforts are laudable there is a pressing need to have a standard operating procedure for such situations so that many of these measures kick-in automatically. Telecommunications are the life line of relief and rescue work. The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) needs to enforce the license provisions relating to location based services. This would appear to be a precondition for the effectiveness of emergency number services in dealing with disaster/emergency related calls as envisaged in TRAI's consultation paper on Emergency Communications and Response Systems.

There are other related issues such as the DoT having a Disaster Management Plan as required under the Disater Management Act, 2005. This would include resilience and redundancy of communications especially in vulnerable areas, SOPs entailing setting up ad hoc networks and mandatory  time bound restoration of communications post disaster etc. It would also entail laying down the protocol and methodology for coordination between service providers and local authorities and list obligations on both their parts. An article BSNL's attempts to restore infrastructure points to the need for such planning and coordination. Such a plan would also lead to corresponding regulations and  amendments to licenses. There would be financial implications which would need to be taken care of. There are also underlying issues regarding Universal Service Obligations which normally  include free access to emergency services. Please see my previous blog titled Universal Access to Emergency Services

The states and districts also need to have well equipped and functional State and District level Emergency Operations Centres (SEOCs and DEOCs) with robust communications networks that can handle the sudden surge in traffic as demanded by disaster/emergency situations. This is mandatory under the DM Act.

There are innovative solutions that can be permanently made part of emergency communications services. See for example Google Person Finder's services for this disaster.

Mobile communications are also important for timely dissemination of emergency alerts and SMS broadcast of location specific disaster prevention/mitigation or relief related information.

Eventually the issue of long term restoration of communications infrastructure arises. In this case suggestions have been to consider mandating insurance towards reconstruction for critical infrastructure like telecommunications.