Sunday, 18 August 2013

Avoiding the Recreation of Monopolies in the Age of Superfast Broadband

I have been writing about this subject quite often. I worry that in our enthusiasm to provide universal access to high speed broadband on an urgent basis, nations who are going in for incumbent centric OFC roll out are erring on the side of monopoly recreation and regulatory headaches apart from all the ill effects of non competitive service provision.

It would appear that similar concerns are being expressed vis-a-vis the rural roll of broadband network in UK. Lack of competition in selection of Universal Service Providers runs the risk of higher than required costs in the short run apart from the usual problems associated with monopoly service provision in the long run. Australia's NBN has been subject to similar criticism.

Quite predictably, Indian USOF's project whereby incumbent BSNL is to to roll out 2199 mobile towers in insurgency prone rural areas is reportedly  running into cost issues even before the project has taken off.

Please see previous posts on competition and National Broadband Plans and Competition. 




Wednesday, 14 August 2013

Unbundling in Access, Spectrum, Roaming, Cross-Holding, International Bandwidth Sharing -Telecom Regulation Potpourri

I will begin with a tit bit from New Zealand. I have written about NZ's National Broadband Plan and ongoing Review of its Telecommunications Act in a  post titled "More on Broadband Networks and Ecosystems-New Zealand's efforts." An article,  "Telecom unbundling key to regulator's copper conundrum." suggests that the tussle between lower wholesale prices for access to copper lines  to give customers' cheap services and "protecting the government-funded build of a nationwide fibre network" or encouraging the transition from copper to optic fibre. The regulator's consultation paper says that "[o]ur current view is that taking account of dynamic efficiencies, a UBA price above the median will best promote competition for the LTBEU (long-term benefit of end-users),"  

News from Europe suggests that the EC is finding ways to promote a genuine single telecommunications market. This would include a common authorization for service providers to operate throughout EU. Also included would be harmonization of inputs:  

"To deliver equivalent services across the EU, operators need harmonised access to basic “inputs” like fixed networks or spectrum. In particular this could involve:

(a) More coordination of spectrum assignment for mobile/wireless services, in particular to align timing and specific authorisation conditions, so operators can more easily organise pan-European activities. This would not need to entail pan-European licensing, and revenue generated from spectrum auctions/sales should remain with Member States.

(b) Harmonised “access products” – which would make it easier in practice to offer services that run across fixed networks in several Member States."

Removal of roaming charges across EU has been in the news lately.There is also talk about a single telecoms regulator with its many pros and cons.

Indian newspapers today write about the continuing clash between interest groups as regards spectrum re-farming and auctions and the likely fall out the new unified licensing norms with the forthcoming ban on same Service Area cross-holdings  wherein formal m development ergers are likely as between RCOM and RTL

And last but not lease an interesting development-cooperation  in South Asia in terms of leasing of international bandwidth. It is reported that India plans turn to Bangladesh for meeting its global telecom connectivity requirements. "It plans to lease nearly 100 gigabytes (GBs) of international bandwidth from two state-owned suppliers in Bangladesh."Bangladesh also proposes to leverage its proposed OFC links with India to address the international connectivity needs of landlocked SAARC countries like Nepal and Bhutan, (but the Indian government is yet to take a firm view on this.)"

Critiques claim that India should create its own cable landing infrastructure.



Monday, 12 August 2013

The Regulatory Balancing Act-Not so Difficult

I had written a post titled "Closing the Market Efficiency Gap-Regulation and Competition" wherein I has said that closing the Market Efficiency Gap demands putting in place sound laws and regulation modeled on international best practices but adapted to local context. This would ensures inter alia a level playing field which precludes vested interests from rent seeking behaviour that is detrimental to the economy as a whole.

In this post I has mentioned the likely mandating of a reduction in access charges for fixed line grid by the Italian firm Telecom Italia SpA by the Communications Regulator of Italy. This article also speaks about the general trend towards reduction in network access charges (both fixed line and mobile) across Europe as a result of conscious efforts of regulators to enhance penetration. It does mention that the Italian Regulator was under pressure from Telecom Italia's rivals.

It is now reported that the Italian Regulator's (Agcom) ruling has been put on hold by the European Commission on account of doubts as to whether the proper procedure of a separate market analysis of impact of cut was carried out. A quote from The European Commission er in charge of the digital agenda is enlightening and worth emulating by telecommunications' regulators:

"In departing from the approach announced last year for setting access prices in the Italian broadband markets, Agcom undermines the required regulatory certainty for all market players,” ...... “Regulation must aim at creating a level playing field for all operators.”

The lesson here is that a systematic and scientific approach to regulation can ensure that regulators meet the ultimate aim of consumer welfare and not fall prey to regulatory capture or political pressures.




Sunday, 11 August 2013

Rapidly Deployable Disaster Resilient Communications-EU's ABSOLUTE Project

The ABSOLUTE project supported by EU's CORDIS programme promises to be capable of "Guaranteeing Communication Coverage In Event Of Disaster"

It is reported that,

ABSOLUTE, which kicked off in October 2012, aims to design and validate a network capable of providing flexible, secure and resilient broadband services. Telecommunication infrastructures play a key role in recovery operations in the aftermath of an emergency. In most cases, however, terrestrial infrastructure cannot guarantee reliable services for citizens and rescue teams, while current public safety networks simply cannot provide sufficient capacity for broadband applications.

This is what ABSOLUTE seeks to address. By using rapidly deployable flexible aerial platforms with embedded 4G EnodeBs (hardware connected to the mobile phone network that communicates directly with mobile handsets), this industry-driven project aims to show that resilient communication networks can be quickly assembled to provide secure and reliable broadband service over areas affected by large-scale unexpected events, such as natural disasters.

Please see previous posts on Disaster Communications and Emergency services including a post about a similar Google project called Loon.

Perhaps the Ministry of Communications & Technology, India could take a leaf out of EU's book to create a programme like CORDIS to support such innovative industry-government collaborations.


Saturday, 10 August 2013

Wise Regulation, the Order of the Day

For quite a few days now Indian media is carrying the story about the sand mafia and the actions of an honest civil servant to prevent illegal mining. A though provoking viewpoint  has been presented on this issue in an article titled, "Between rock, sand and a hard place" in the Times of India on August 11, 2013. It states that, "[i]n several areas, Indian rules and regulations make honest business impossible. The only choice is illegal business or no business." The author of this article draws attention to the shortage of sand for a booming construction sector on account of " licensing and environmental bottlenecks." The latter creates an artificial scarcity that allows the mafia to step in and profit.I will leave readers to judge the merits of these arguments for themselves. 

Why am I writing about sand and construction? 

That is because in my view it reflects the same underlying problem that is  hampering economic activity in the country today. In a developing country that  is (let us accept it), still below par as far as institutional and administrative capacities are concerned, regulation has to be realistic, practical, simple yet sufficiently detailed in order to be unambiguous, leaving little room for arbitrariness/misinterpretation. It should be forward looking so as to not require too frequent review, but it should be reviewed when need be based on well laid down criteria. Most of all it should keep consumer welfare at its focus. 

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's Chairperson (TRAI)  has recently commented on the controversial 3G roaming pacts among three large mobile operators in India. According to the Department of Telecommunications, these pacts replicate the characteristics of Mobile Virtual Network Operators' (MVNO) operations, something that is not yet permitted in India. The operators by sharing spectrum and infrastructure were able to provide 3G services to customers even in telecom circles where they had not won spectrum in the 3G auction. 

The TRAI Chief is quoted as having said that, " in a situation where there is no more spectrum available, it ay not be possible to continue with a regime where pacts for intra-circle roaming (ICR) in 3G services are not allowed..............This is a Catch-22 situation. How is it (closing down ICR) a solution?” 

The article on this issue goes on to say that,

According to [Mr] Khullar Indian law treats spectrum as a holy cow for some reason.

“I can understand that you don’t want to cap gains on assigned spectrum which is administratively allocated. But if everyone is buying spectrum on auction, why not permit trade in it? These are issues on which the government should no longer brook any further delay. A decision needs to be taken,” 

Again, I leave it to readers to form opinions. I would just like to highlight that I agree with the TRAI Chief that corrective regulation is the order of the day if consumer welfare and not regulation for regulations sake is our aim.

I also invite readers to go through previous posts on Telecom Regulation and the Market Efficiency Gap to appreciate the importance of effective regulation for growth and equity in telecommunications penetration.


Friday, 9 August 2013

The Huge Potential of Internet in Young India

An interview with Google's Managing Director Rajan Anandan published in the Mint on August 10, 2013 makes it clear how positive they are about the growth of mobile internet/broadband in India. He has been quoted as follows:

"India has the third largest number of Internet users in the world right now, at around 150 million users, and most of the new additions have been mobile users. That’s a huge audience, and what we’re seeing is that the Internet has gone mainstream. Around 50 million people are watching video online, up from 15 million two years ago. Around 37% of all YouTube viewers in India are doing so on a mobile device.
One area that’s of particular interest to us is the small business uptake. SMB (small and medium businesses) ads have been growing in the triple digits, with large adoption. Our role there has been to help build the ecosystem. We’re also seeing some very positive trends with e-commerce. I think that the industry reached its inflection point at the end of 2011. The growth was around 40% in 2011, and in 2012 it was 120%. People became familiar with buying things on the Net...
The audience has also definitely become more sophisticated, and the kinds of offerings available now, prove that.For example, “Local” is growing now; it’s in its early days, and there isn’t enough data in place yet, but if you look at things like Maps, or movie ticketing, or look at a company like online food and restaurant guide Zomato, then you can see that there is a lot of great potential, and I think that by the end of 2014 all the pieces will be in place for this to really grow."

The future is very bright as far as m and e services are concerned. As I have written earlier in my post titled, "M Education & the Demographic Dividend," which may be seen under posts labeled Mobile Education, India is a young country with 54% of the population being under 25.  In fact India is often cited as an example of the demographic dividend whereby the larger relative share of working age population has the potential to progress the economy to higher rates of growth.

In the near future India will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition. A 2011 International Monetary Fund Working Paper found that substantial portion of the growth experienced by India since the 1980s is attributable to the country’s age structure and changing demographics. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that India will surpass China as the world’s largest country by 2025, with a large proportion of those in the working age category. Over the next two decades the continuing demographic dividend in India could add about two percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth.[ Extreme actions are needed to take care of future basic minimum living standards including food, water and energy. As per Population Reference Bureau India's population in 2050 is projected to be 1.692 billion people. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_dividend)

Thus, educating, employing and mainstreaming all segments of India's youth and working age population is critical for socio-economic progress. I have also mentioned earlier in several posts including those labeled Broadband Ecosystem, that locally relevant content in the local language is the key to growth. Mr Anandan too has drawn attention to the fact that the next 300 million customers in India will not speak English. The spread of local language content will be helped along with "improvements in speech to text and voice controls." He has very rightly pointed out that internet offers more value in small towns which are in fact driving growth. I believe that this is also true of rural India.

In an article titled "Empowering India-Opportunities in Rural Telecommunications" published in the Telenet magazine in January 2012, I had written that,

 "there is tremendous potential in rural markets especially given the background of robust mobile connectivity and the imminent spread of broadband to rural India.  What rural India needs desperately is information, knowledge and urban quality services. This translates into a huge market opportunity for providers of ICT enabled access to information, education, health, financial services, commerce and employment opportunities etc." 

I had also mentioned that,

 "it is amazing how many an urban Indian actually believes that there would necessarily be very low demand for broadband in rural areas. Already there are more internet users in small towns than the top eight metros put together. Interestingly more than 20% users are school children and 10% users belong to lowest socio-economic strata . While only a minority of rural Indians may be able to afford individual access to broadband on account lack of computing devices and power, this does not imply a lack of demand for broadband enabled services. In interactions during the verification of USOF’s wire line broadband scheme, it has clearly emerged that better off rural families across the country do buy computers for the same reasons as urban families do -children’s education, knowledge and entertainment or as an aid to their incomes/businesses. They would relish good broadband connectivity as much as urban Indians do........There is also a healthy demand for public access broadband facilities. This is logical in the face of near absence of local infrastructure and services. Just as an urban Indian searches online when looking for a new or locally unavailable information, service or product, rural Indians too would like to research/access the same online. This is a rural reality even today.  Booking journey tickets online is a simple example. If credit cards are a problem intermediaries (village level entrepreneurs (VLEs)) with credit cards step in to facilitate transactions.  VLEs also facilitate online money transfers, download mobile software etc. Skype is just as useful and popular amongst rural Indians as a means to reach out to relatives in cities/abroad. This demand will only grow as the rural literacy rate rises beyond the current 68.91%  and knowledge and            e-connectivity increasingly become key to empowerment.  The demographic profile of our country means that more than 50%.rural Indians are less than 25 years old. They have the same affinity for the worldwide web as urban youth. I have personally seen rural school girls downloading online games with as enthusiastically as any city-bred child. The frustration with the speed of the connection was palpable!"


Wednesday, 7 August 2013

More on Broadband Networks & Ecosystems-New Zealand's Efforts

In a post titled "National Broadband Networks:Regulation, Universal Service, Competition & Monopolies," I had stated that while most of these these public/US funded OFC networks are slated to be open access networks, care should be taken to avoid displacing private investment and initiative which may have been forthcoming with the right regulatory environment or incentives. Use of public funds/universal service funds should ideally be restricted to areas where markets have failed and logically the best course is to bid out such network provision to allow a level playing field between private and public operators. This may lead to a more fragmented approach than one integrated network but contractual obligations can ensure seamless connectivity between and non-discriminatory open access to backbone networks owned by various entities.  (see previous blog post) Such a PPP approach rather than publicly/incumbent owned networks may prove to be more competition and growth friendly in the long run even if it entails more effort in the short term. The use of public funding in pockets where no operator will venture or where effective competition is unlikely in spite of effective regulation (akin to European Commissions white or grey areas) is however justifiable. 

The fact of the matter is that in many countries we are now rolling out state supported national broadband networks which often rely on the incumbent. My view on this is we should be careful about the trade off between short term expediency (time, cost and effort saved) and long term imoact by way of competition, innovation and growth. 

I once again reproduce below a quote from the ITU report on the State of Broadband 2012

"Broadband networks and services are more than simple infrastructure – they represent a set of transformative technologies that promise to change the way we communicate, work, play and do business.  It is essential that every country  takes  broadband  policy  into account to shape its future social and economic development and prosperity, emphasizing both the supply and demand sides of the market. Further, it is crucial to adequately evaluate the potential alternatives to be implemented in order to encourage private sector investment. A “one size fits all” policy to broadband roll-out could have negative implications for the ICT market. Finally, a detailed cost-benefit approach should be adopted when evaluating different public policies and regulatory options to promote the growth and development of broadband in different countries around the world."

In this context, in the same post I had placed links to comparisons of Australia's NBN with New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore's national broadband network efforts.

A comparison with USA's efforts can be seen at "NBN vs. the world: The American experience." It is accepted that USA relies on a more hands off approach favouring competition and that Australia is more dependent on its incumbent Telstra. Its interesting to note that NBN's Myers is quoted as saying that
the U.S. market structure has caused a problem of its own “It’s actually resulting in very much a patchwork network across the states.” Different companies deploy different technologies from each other, and even within their own footprint offer different speeds in different areas, he said. “There’s no consistency across the marketplace.

Another viewpoint of  Rod Tucker, a professor at the University of Melbourne is that, 

Verizon has rolled out an extensive fibre-to-the-home network in the US,” but hasn’t seen much take up, ..."This is because the Verizon fibre network runs alongside competing HFC and ADSL networks. The lesson that Australia can learn from this is that facilities-based competition can be inefficient."

I donot agree with this conclusion at all and in fact I believe relying on a single technology and single network is not prone to the same fallacious "telecom as a natural monopoly" argument that we encountered in the era of copper line access. It will most probabaly lead to the same regulatory headaches in the future.

A comparison with Korea is available at  "NBN vs the world: The Korean experience." The success  achieved through an emphasis on developing the entire broadband eco-system is evident.

"[Korea] developed e-health, e-learning and e-government services when it began constructing its broadband networks... which allowed the government to pinpoint early on where problems were and commercialise the technology earlier. This allowed citizens to become accustomed to online services such as online banking and e-trade."

Most importantly,

"The Korean government has also put in place a competitive environment to allow as many broadband operators as possible...We’re seeing a very aggressive campaign from their government... promoting and making broadband networks available. One thing that we can learn is that there is a place for government to put into place policies and best practice to ensure that operators are able to make available the services that the customers want

The Government in my view should do just that, promote through regulation and policy rather than get involved in actual roll outs.

A detailed description of New Zealands's  Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) initiative and the Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI) is available in an article titled, "NBN vs. the world: The New Zealand experience." The article 

Another article "NZ gov seeks submissions on telco regulation" describes the proposed review of New Zealand's Telecommunications Act 2001 which in its first phase will examine will examine "whether the current regulatory framework is adequate for New Zealand’s migration from legacy copper infrastructure to fibre networks and discuss pricing components of the current regulatory framework."

What I liked was the focus on "competition for end-users, how the commercial interests of access providers and seekers can be promoted and how to effectively encourage investment for the long-term benefit of end-users." and " innovation in the telco market and deregulation in instances where there is sufficient competition."

India needs to pay attention as we often review telecom policy from the technology end rather than focus on consumer benefits and work backwards. We also rarely commence our analysis with competition as the desirable end result.

Previous posts on Competition, Broadband Networks and National and National Broadband Plans may also be seen.