Saturday, 31 August 2013

ICTs for Indian farmers

A 2009 Deloitte Assocham Report on mobile VAS as a means of inclusion speaks about the sheer enormity of the problem of reaching out to a billion plus population to ensure provision of "basic hygiene and sanitation, clean drinking water, basic healthcare, primary education to adequate housing, roads, higher education, banking facilities, disease control, and disease management. Each problem is exacerbated by its sheer magnitude.  (Refer Table 1)."


Thus, India is a country where rural areas in particular are financially excluded. The RBI has officially directed banks to explore ICTs based solutions through the business correspondent model whereby a village can be covered even in the absence of a brick and mortar branch.

Recently, the Mint carried an article about RuPay a card payment network like Visa and masterCard that is revolutionizing how Indian farmers handle money. Through RuPay Kisan (farmer) cards farmers can make electronic payments at lower transaction costs. It is a domestic system launched in 2012 by the National Payment Corporation of India and many banks (national, private, cooperative and rural) provide vards affiliated to it for population in small towns and villages. While RuPay cards are usable at all ATMs, only 25-30% of the point of sale(PoS) machines are compatible and this is being tacked. Nevertheless, such facilities are empowering farmers through ICT enabled financial inclusion.

The Indian USOF  had also initiated a scheme for ICT enabled banking services in rural India on pilot basis in collaboration with BSNL as an adjunct to the Rural Wire Line Scheme. It dis not succeed due to various stakeholder coordination issues but USOF should in my view continue to strive to support such services. 


Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Responsible Policy Making Needs Sound Regulation

I was impressed by an article published in the Times of India today- "Muddling through Food Security" by Ashok Gulati, Chairman of Commission for Agricultural costs and Prices. Writing about the recently passed food security bill, this economist has succinctly explained the pitfalls of the food subsidy programme proposed to cost Rs 1,30,000 crore at current prices. He has stated that it will probably not achieve its objective of better nutrition, but will drive up our fiscal deficit while diverting precious funds from other critical areas such as sanitation, drinking water and female education needed to address malnutrition and health in our country.  Commenting that, "the art of policy making lies in achieving desired ends with minimal costs" he has pointed out that instruments like conditional cash transfers can achieve desired ends much more efficiently without distorting agri-markets.

I draw attention to this contentious issue as an example of India's desperate need to mandate a full fledged, transparent economic analysis of state funded schemes. Tax payers have a right to know that we are achieving short term growth and equity in efficient ways that will not cause long term harm to our economy. We do have a lot of debate in the media and in the parliament, but it should be based on a structured analysis of the proposed regulation backed by hard facts and figures that policy makers own up responsibility for. Decision makers may not then find it so easy to ignore rationality in favour of other considerations. Placing hard facts and figures in the public domain would empower citizens.

My blog concerns ICTs penetration. This issue is relevant for that as well. In a developing country like India, we have less than satisfactory institutional capabilities, leading at times to less than efficient policy making even when we have sound inputs from within and outside policy making bodies.Regulation that mandates transparent economic analysis and placement of the full justification for policy measures in the public domain can in my view counter regulatory capture and rent seeking.

Take the example of subsidising Universal service.  I have written earlier about USOF India's proposed scheme to subsidise mobile devices.  If regulation mandated a transparent socio-economic cost benefit analysis of this measure necessitating justification that this is the only/best way of increasing mobile penetration among the rural poor, it would help policy makers make better decisions. 

Another  area where much improvement is required in Indian policy making, is that economic analysis of a policy has to capture a much larger canvas as.  has been painted for us by Mr Gulati in his article. We have to  examine the impact of policy making on the sector and economy as a whole rather than conveniently bury our heads in the sand. This reminds me of my concerns about state funded broadband roll outs. Previous posts can be seen under the labels Competition , National Broadband Plans and Broadband Networks.





USOF India's Scheme for Mobile Towers in Disturbed Areas

The Universal Service Obligation Fund of India is soon to sign an MoU with BSNL the incumbent telecom operator (PSU)  for setting up mobile towers in states affected by naxal violence. Repeatedly,

 "BSNL has already floated a notice inviting tender for setting up 1,315 sites of 2G GSM network in left-wing extremist areas of Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal for five years, which is extendable by two years....There were, however, some differences over costs between BSNL and USOF. " When BSNL was "[a]sked whether the tender calls to set up towers in four states while the Cabinet had cleared setting up mobile sites in nine states,[the BSNL CMD] said the company has already established towers in some naxal affected states, which just need to be maintained....The towers, which have been a long-pending demand of the Home Ministry, will strengthen the telecom network resulting in increased penetration in LWE affected areas and other areas facing security challenges."

In case the entire capital and operating costs are being given for states where towers did not exist earlier, it would seem that USOF could have gone in for bidding to obtain competitive rates. There is no information in the public domain to suggest that other mobile service providers were not willing to participate in this programme.


Monday, 26 August 2013

Markets Miracles-Internet.org

Under the label  Market Efficiency Gap, I have written earlier about How Markets Address Access Gaps. This post was about an Indian telecom operator creating awareness about mobile internet in rural markets.

Continuing with this topic, another example of service providers going out of their way to develop markets is seen in a new initiative called Internet.org to increase access to the internet "aimed at drastically cutting the cost of delivering basic Internet services on mobile phones, particularly in developing countries. "

This involves a partnership between big service providers such as  Facebook, Samsung, Nokia, Qualcomm and Ericsson etc. 

"The companies intend to accomplish their goal in part by simplifying phone applications so they run more efficiently and by improving the components of phones and networks so that they transmit more data while using less battery power."

This makes business sense when we understand the need to find new markets as the developed world nears 50% plus penetration levels ad to tap into potential markets in developing countries. 

Thus, it is reported that,

"Poorer countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America present the biggest opportunity to reach new customers — if companies can figure out how to get people there online at low cost.....The immediate goals of the new coalition are to cut the cost of providing mobile Internet services to 1 percent of its current level within five to 10 years by improving the efficiency of Internet networks and mobile phone software. The group also hopes to develop new business models that would allow phone companies to provide simple services like e-mail, search and social networks for little or no charge."




Saturday, 24 August 2013

ICTs for Rural Healthcare

I had written recently about USA's refurbished rural healthcare programme and that Indian USOF could study the same for guidance on do's and dont's.

A very inspiring example of use of ICTs for rural healthcare, in this case maternity and neo natal healthcare is reported in an article "ASHA 2.0: Barmer block’s healing touch on tablets."

ASHA (Accredited Social Health Activist) workers in rural Rajasthan's Barmer district have been equipped with tablets which are helping them and the beneficiaries of the Governments's health benefits programme to better track maternal health while also generating interest in ICTs in rural women. Rajasthan is one of the  very conservative state of India.

My own experience with the Sanchar Shakti project was that rural women take  to ICTs  very rapidly with great benefits. One of the projects is being implemented in Ajmer district of Rajasthan  where rural women are keen as any other to improve their and their daughters' lot through information and ICT enabled  services. A full description of the implementation experience so far may be read at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2302471.






India's Massisve Potential for Online Services

A report from comScore titled,  2013 India Digital Future in Focus report provides an insight into India's growth in the online space with the following highlights:
  • At 73.9 million home and work internet users, the Indian online population currently ranks as the 3rd largest in the world after China and the U.S.
  • With 75 percent of its internet users under the age of 35, India has the youngest skewing online population among BRIC countries.
  • Across all age and gender groups, Women between the ages of 35-44 are the heaviest internet users in the Indian market.
  • The Indian blogging audience grew 48 percent in the past year to 36 million visitors, while 26 percent of category traffic comes from mobile phones and tablets.
  • 54 million internet users in India watched online videos on their computer, representing a 27-percent increase over the past year.
A reading of the whitepaper reveals the huge potential for online services and content in India. This includes e-commerce, financial services, real estate, travel, social networking, entertainment and news. This can be expected from a young country with growing literacy rates and generally poor infrastructure. Broadband/internet are the bridge across infrastructure/facilities gaps which enables  apparitions to be fulfilled and promotes empowerment. Interestingly blogging is growing rapidly in India and I guess new users like me get added every day!

On the technology/device side it becomes clear that mobile devices and services are what is enabling the rapid increase in consumption of online services.

Previous posts on Broadband Ecosystem and Mobile VAS, Mobile Education etc. may also be of interest.

Friday, 23 August 2013

The Demand Side of Broadband Expansion-Telemedicine

As per the telecom live magazine (August issue) the Department of Telecommunications is collaborating with other ministries/ departments to establish the utility of the NOFN. This includes the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare which has reportedly stated in an inter ministerial meeting held in June 2013 that fibre connectivity and computers are critical for telemedicine applications. There is no doubt about that but a proper and detailed assessment of needs and gaps would be critical for BBNL to usefully boost telemedicine in rural India in a systematic manner.

We could learn something from USA 's experience. It has for the past 15 years run a programe to subsiise connectivity fo rural healthcare. 

As per an article titled, "FCC Rural Health Care Program coming up woefully short" in November 2010 a Government audit  said that the FCC "has not conducted an assessment of the telecommunications needs of rural healthcare providers as it has managed the primary Rural Health Care Program, which limits FCC's ability to determine how well the program has addressed those needs." In addition, government auditors found that the FCC has not developed specific performance goals for the Rural Health Care Program and has developed "ineffective" performance measures." 

However another article, "$400 million FCC fund to bolster rural telemedicine networks," describes the Federal Communications Commission plan to expand on the above-mentioned programme to " make up to $400 million available to healthcare providers in order to create and expand telemedicine networks nationwide, linking urban medical centers to rural clinics while providing greater access to medical specialists and instant access to electronic health records. "

It is said that, 

"According to the FCC, the Healthcare Connect Fund could cut the cost of broadband healthcare networks in half, through group purchases by consortia and other efficiencies. The fund will provide a 65 percent discount on broadband services, equipment and connections to research and education networks, and healthcare provider-constructed and owned facilities (if shown to be the most cost-effective connectivity option), while requiring a 35 percent HCP contribution.To be eligible for the funding, applicants must be public or not-for-profit hospitals, rural health clinics, community health centers, health centers serving migrants, community mental health centers, local health departments or agencies, post-secondary educational institutions/teaching hospitals/medical schools, or a consortia of the above."

USOF India needs to learn from successes and pitfalls of such initiatives while coming out with specific programmes to address demand side of the broadband ecosystem.




Monday, 19 August 2013

China's Broadband Boost

My last post described how China Mobile's technology choice and order placements would benefit Indian operators' plans for 4G roll outs.

It is reported that,

"China's cabinet has recently elevated national broadband development as a national strategy and has announced an implementation timeline for its development over the next eight years.  .The plan will also be carried out in three different stages, with fiber optic networks and 3G mobile coverage to be facilitated in 2013, while broadband coverage will be expanded from 2014 to 2015. Broadband network and technology updates will be the key task from 2016 to 2020."

As I mentioned earlier these plans should boost the mobile broadband ecosystem as a whole and benefit the world at large.



Sunday, 18 August 2013

Achieving Universal Service and Digital Progress in a Connected World.


If readers have ever wondered about the title of my blog. Here is an answer.

The Mint today carries an article about "Indian telcos' 4G Plans get[ting] an unexpected boost." This article highlights the benefits of China Mobile Ltd's plans to "purchase equipment worth more than $7 billion for a network based on a new technology standard, boosting its popularity, and potentially increasing the availability of phones and network equipment based on the standard and lowering their costs."

So far, Indian operators desiring to roll out pan India 4G services have been constrained by high cost of equipment and handsets. They possess 4G TD LTE spectrum. This is different from US and European operators' 4G LTE-FDD services meaning that much of the international manufacturing is based on the FDD spectrum standard. China's interest and patronage will give the former technology's supply and overall eco-system the required critical mass helping reduce prices and increase range and availability of equipment.

I think that the question stands answered. It is a "connected world" as far as universal access to state of art telecom services goes.




Avoiding the Recreation of Monopolies in the Age of Superfast Broadband

I have been writing about this subject quite often. I worry that in our enthusiasm to provide universal access to high speed broadband on an urgent basis, nations who are going in for incumbent centric OFC roll out are erring on the side of monopoly recreation and regulatory headaches apart from all the ill effects of non competitive service provision.

It would appear that similar concerns are being expressed vis-a-vis the rural roll of broadband network in UK. Lack of competition in selection of Universal Service Providers runs the risk of higher than required costs in the short run apart from the usual problems associated with monopoly service provision in the long run. Australia's NBN has been subject to similar criticism.

Quite predictably, Indian USOF's project whereby incumbent BSNL is to to roll out 2199 mobile towers in insurgency prone rural areas is reportedly  running into cost issues even before the project has taken off.

Please see previous posts on competition and National Broadband Plans and Competition. 




Wednesday, 14 August 2013

Unbundling in Access, Spectrum, Roaming, Cross-Holding, International Bandwidth Sharing -Telecom Regulation Potpourri

I will begin with a tit bit from New Zealand. I have written about NZ's National Broadband Plan and ongoing Review of its Telecommunications Act in a  post titled "More on Broadband Networks and Ecosystems-New Zealand's efforts." An article,  "Telecom unbundling key to regulator's copper conundrum." suggests that the tussle between lower wholesale prices for access to copper lines  to give customers' cheap services and "protecting the government-funded build of a nationwide fibre network" or encouraging the transition from copper to optic fibre. The regulator's consultation paper says that "[o]ur current view is that taking account of dynamic efficiencies, a UBA price above the median will best promote competition for the LTBEU (long-term benefit of end-users),"  

News from Europe suggests that the EC is finding ways to promote a genuine single telecommunications market. This would include a common authorization for service providers to operate throughout EU. Also included would be harmonization of inputs:  

"To deliver equivalent services across the EU, operators need harmonised access to basic “inputs” like fixed networks or spectrum. In particular this could involve:

(a) More coordination of spectrum assignment for mobile/wireless services, in particular to align timing and specific authorisation conditions, so operators can more easily organise pan-European activities. This would not need to entail pan-European licensing, and revenue generated from spectrum auctions/sales should remain with Member States.

(b) Harmonised “access products” – which would make it easier in practice to offer services that run across fixed networks in several Member States."

Removal of roaming charges across EU has been in the news lately.There is also talk about a single telecoms regulator with its many pros and cons.

Indian newspapers today write about the continuing clash between interest groups as regards spectrum re-farming and auctions and the likely fall out the new unified licensing norms with the forthcoming ban on same Service Area cross-holdings  wherein formal m development ergers are likely as between RCOM and RTL

And last but not lease an interesting development-cooperation  in South Asia in terms of leasing of international bandwidth. It is reported that India plans turn to Bangladesh for meeting its global telecom connectivity requirements. "It plans to lease nearly 100 gigabytes (GBs) of international bandwidth from two state-owned suppliers in Bangladesh."Bangladesh also proposes to leverage its proposed OFC links with India to address the international connectivity needs of landlocked SAARC countries like Nepal and Bhutan, (but the Indian government is yet to take a firm view on this.)"

Critiques claim that India should create its own cable landing infrastructure.



Monday, 12 August 2013

The Regulatory Balancing Act-Not so Difficult

I had written a post titled "Closing the Market Efficiency Gap-Regulation and Competition" wherein I has said that closing the Market Efficiency Gap demands putting in place sound laws and regulation modeled on international best practices but adapted to local context. This would ensures inter alia a level playing field which precludes vested interests from rent seeking behaviour that is detrimental to the economy as a whole.

In this post I has mentioned the likely mandating of a reduction in access charges for fixed line grid by the Italian firm Telecom Italia SpA by the Communications Regulator of Italy. This article also speaks about the general trend towards reduction in network access charges (both fixed line and mobile) across Europe as a result of conscious efforts of regulators to enhance penetration. It does mention that the Italian Regulator was under pressure from Telecom Italia's rivals.

It is now reported that the Italian Regulator's (Agcom) ruling has been put on hold by the European Commission on account of doubts as to whether the proper procedure of a separate market analysis of impact of cut was carried out. A quote from The European Commission er in charge of the digital agenda is enlightening and worth emulating by telecommunications' regulators:

"In departing from the approach announced last year for setting access prices in the Italian broadband markets, Agcom undermines the required regulatory certainty for all market players,” ...... “Regulation must aim at creating a level playing field for all operators.”

The lesson here is that a systematic and scientific approach to regulation can ensure that regulators meet the ultimate aim of consumer welfare and not fall prey to regulatory capture or political pressures.




Sunday, 11 August 2013

Rapidly Deployable Disaster Resilient Communications-EU's ABSOLUTE Project

The ABSOLUTE project supported by EU's CORDIS programme promises to be capable of "Guaranteeing Communication Coverage In Event Of Disaster"

It is reported that,

ABSOLUTE, which kicked off in October 2012, aims to design and validate a network capable of providing flexible, secure and resilient broadband services. Telecommunication infrastructures play a key role in recovery operations in the aftermath of an emergency. In most cases, however, terrestrial infrastructure cannot guarantee reliable services for citizens and rescue teams, while current public safety networks simply cannot provide sufficient capacity for broadband applications.

This is what ABSOLUTE seeks to address. By using rapidly deployable flexible aerial platforms with embedded 4G EnodeBs (hardware connected to the mobile phone network that communicates directly with mobile handsets), this industry-driven project aims to show that resilient communication networks can be quickly assembled to provide secure and reliable broadband service over areas affected by large-scale unexpected events, such as natural disasters.

Please see previous posts on Disaster Communications and Emergency services including a post about a similar Google project called Loon.

Perhaps the Ministry of Communications & Technology, India could take a leaf out of EU's book to create a programme like CORDIS to support such innovative industry-government collaborations.


Saturday, 10 August 2013

Wise Regulation, the Order of the Day

For quite a few days now Indian media is carrying the story about the sand mafia and the actions of an honest civil servant to prevent illegal mining. A though provoking viewpoint  has been presented on this issue in an article titled, "Between rock, sand and a hard place" in the Times of India on August 11, 2013. It states that, "[i]n several areas, Indian rules and regulations make honest business impossible. The only choice is illegal business or no business." The author of this article draws attention to the shortage of sand for a booming construction sector on account of " licensing and environmental bottlenecks." The latter creates an artificial scarcity that allows the mafia to step in and profit.I will leave readers to judge the merits of these arguments for themselves. 

Why am I writing about sand and construction? 

That is because in my view it reflects the same underlying problem that is  hampering economic activity in the country today. In a developing country that  is (let us accept it), still below par as far as institutional and administrative capacities are concerned, regulation has to be realistic, practical, simple yet sufficiently detailed in order to be unambiguous, leaving little room for arbitrariness/misinterpretation. It should be forward looking so as to not require too frequent review, but it should be reviewed when need be based on well laid down criteria. Most of all it should keep consumer welfare at its focus. 

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's Chairperson (TRAI)  has recently commented on the controversial 3G roaming pacts among three large mobile operators in India. According to the Department of Telecommunications, these pacts replicate the characteristics of Mobile Virtual Network Operators' (MVNO) operations, something that is not yet permitted in India. The operators by sharing spectrum and infrastructure were able to provide 3G services to customers even in telecom circles where they had not won spectrum in the 3G auction. 

The TRAI Chief is quoted as having said that, " in a situation where there is no more spectrum available, it ay not be possible to continue with a regime where pacts for intra-circle roaming (ICR) in 3G services are not allowed..............This is a Catch-22 situation. How is it (closing down ICR) a solution?” 

The article on this issue goes on to say that,

According to [Mr] Khullar Indian law treats spectrum as a holy cow for some reason.

“I can understand that you don’t want to cap gains on assigned spectrum which is administratively allocated. But if everyone is buying spectrum on auction, why not permit trade in it? These are issues on which the government should no longer brook any further delay. A decision needs to be taken,” 

Again, I leave it to readers to form opinions. I would just like to highlight that I agree with the TRAI Chief that corrective regulation is the order of the day if consumer welfare and not regulation for regulations sake is our aim.

I also invite readers to go through previous posts on Telecom Regulation and the Market Efficiency Gap to appreciate the importance of effective regulation for growth and equity in telecommunications penetration.


Friday, 9 August 2013

The Huge Potential of Internet in Young India

An interview with Google's Managing Director Rajan Anandan published in the Mint on August 10, 2013 makes it clear how positive they are about the growth of mobile internet/broadband in India. He has been quoted as follows:

"India has the third largest number of Internet users in the world right now, at around 150 million users, and most of the new additions have been mobile users. That’s a huge audience, and what we’re seeing is that the Internet has gone mainstream. Around 50 million people are watching video online, up from 15 million two years ago. Around 37% of all YouTube viewers in India are doing so on a mobile device.
One area that’s of particular interest to us is the small business uptake. SMB (small and medium businesses) ads have been growing in the triple digits, with large adoption. Our role there has been to help build the ecosystem. We’re also seeing some very positive trends with e-commerce. I think that the industry reached its inflection point at the end of 2011. The growth was around 40% in 2011, and in 2012 it was 120%. People became familiar with buying things on the Net...
The audience has also definitely become more sophisticated, and the kinds of offerings available now, prove that.For example, “Local” is growing now; it’s in its early days, and there isn’t enough data in place yet, but if you look at things like Maps, or movie ticketing, or look at a company like online food and restaurant guide Zomato, then you can see that there is a lot of great potential, and I think that by the end of 2014 all the pieces will be in place for this to really grow."

The future is very bright as far as m and e services are concerned. As I have written earlier in my post titled, "M Education & the Demographic Dividend," which may be seen under posts labeled Mobile Education, India is a young country with 54% of the population being under 25.  In fact India is often cited as an example of the demographic dividend whereby the larger relative share of working age population has the potential to progress the economy to higher rates of growth.

In the near future India will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition. A 2011 International Monetary Fund Working Paper found that substantial portion of the growth experienced by India since the 1980s is attributable to the country’s age structure and changing demographics. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that India will surpass China as the world’s largest country by 2025, with a large proportion of those in the working age category. Over the next two decades the continuing demographic dividend in India could add about two percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth.[ Extreme actions are needed to take care of future basic minimum living standards including food, water and energy. As per Population Reference Bureau India's population in 2050 is projected to be 1.692 billion people. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_dividend)

Thus, educating, employing and mainstreaming all segments of India's youth and working age population is critical for socio-economic progress. I have also mentioned earlier in several posts including those labeled Broadband Ecosystem, that locally relevant content in the local language is the key to growth. Mr Anandan too has drawn attention to the fact that the next 300 million customers in India will not speak English. The spread of local language content will be helped along with "improvements in speech to text and voice controls." He has very rightly pointed out that internet offers more value in small towns which are in fact driving growth. I believe that this is also true of rural India.

In an article titled "Empowering India-Opportunities in Rural Telecommunications" published in the Telenet magazine in January 2012, I had written that,

 "there is tremendous potential in rural markets especially given the background of robust mobile connectivity and the imminent spread of broadband to rural India.  What rural India needs desperately is information, knowledge and urban quality services. This translates into a huge market opportunity for providers of ICT enabled access to information, education, health, financial services, commerce and employment opportunities etc." 

I had also mentioned that,

 "it is amazing how many an urban Indian actually believes that there would necessarily be very low demand for broadband in rural areas. Already there are more internet users in small towns than the top eight metros put together. Interestingly more than 20% users are school children and 10% users belong to lowest socio-economic strata . While only a minority of rural Indians may be able to afford individual access to broadband on account lack of computing devices and power, this does not imply a lack of demand for broadband enabled services. In interactions during the verification of USOF’s wire line broadband scheme, it has clearly emerged that better off rural families across the country do buy computers for the same reasons as urban families do -children’s education, knowledge and entertainment or as an aid to their incomes/businesses. They would relish good broadband connectivity as much as urban Indians do........There is also a healthy demand for public access broadband facilities. This is logical in the face of near absence of local infrastructure and services. Just as an urban Indian searches online when looking for a new or locally unavailable information, service or product, rural Indians too would like to research/access the same online. This is a rural reality even today.  Booking journey tickets online is a simple example. If credit cards are a problem intermediaries (village level entrepreneurs (VLEs)) with credit cards step in to facilitate transactions.  VLEs also facilitate online money transfers, download mobile software etc. Skype is just as useful and popular amongst rural Indians as a means to reach out to relatives in cities/abroad. This demand will only grow as the rural literacy rate rises beyond the current 68.91%  and knowledge and            e-connectivity increasingly become key to empowerment.  The demographic profile of our country means that more than 50%.rural Indians are less than 25 years old. They have the same affinity for the worldwide web as urban youth. I have personally seen rural school girls downloading online games with as enthusiastically as any city-bred child. The frustration with the speed of the connection was palpable!"


Wednesday, 7 August 2013

More on Broadband Networks & Ecosystems-New Zealand's Efforts

In a post titled "National Broadband Networks:Regulation, Universal Service, Competition & Monopolies," I had stated that while most of these these public/US funded OFC networks are slated to be open access networks, care should be taken to avoid displacing private investment and initiative which may have been forthcoming with the right regulatory environment or incentives. Use of public funds/universal service funds should ideally be restricted to areas where markets have failed and logically the best course is to bid out such network provision to allow a level playing field between private and public operators. This may lead to a more fragmented approach than one integrated network but contractual obligations can ensure seamless connectivity between and non-discriminatory open access to backbone networks owned by various entities.  (see previous blog post) Such a PPP approach rather than publicly/incumbent owned networks may prove to be more competition and growth friendly in the long run even if it entails more effort in the short term. The use of public funding in pockets where no operator will venture or where effective competition is unlikely in spite of effective regulation (akin to European Commissions white or grey areas) is however justifiable. 

The fact of the matter is that in many countries we are now rolling out state supported national broadband networks which often rely on the incumbent. My view on this is we should be careful about the trade off between short term expediency (time, cost and effort saved) and long term imoact by way of competition, innovation and growth. 

I once again reproduce below a quote from the ITU report on the State of Broadband 2012

"Broadband networks and services are more than simple infrastructure – they represent a set of transformative technologies that promise to change the way we communicate, work, play and do business.  It is essential that every country  takes  broadband  policy  into account to shape its future social and economic development and prosperity, emphasizing both the supply and demand sides of the market. Further, it is crucial to adequately evaluate the potential alternatives to be implemented in order to encourage private sector investment. A “one size fits all” policy to broadband roll-out could have negative implications for the ICT market. Finally, a detailed cost-benefit approach should be adopted when evaluating different public policies and regulatory options to promote the growth and development of broadband in different countries around the world."

In this context, in the same post I had placed links to comparisons of Australia's NBN with New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore's national broadband network efforts.

A comparison with USA's efforts can be seen at "NBN vs. the world: The American experience." It is accepted that USA relies on a more hands off approach favouring competition and that Australia is more dependent on its incumbent Telstra. Its interesting to note that NBN's Myers is quoted as saying that
the U.S. market structure has caused a problem of its own “It’s actually resulting in very much a patchwork network across the states.” Different companies deploy different technologies from each other, and even within their own footprint offer different speeds in different areas, he said. “There’s no consistency across the marketplace.

Another viewpoint of  Rod Tucker, a professor at the University of Melbourne is that, 

Verizon has rolled out an extensive fibre-to-the-home network in the US,” but hasn’t seen much take up, ..."This is because the Verizon fibre network runs alongside competing HFC and ADSL networks. The lesson that Australia can learn from this is that facilities-based competition can be inefficient."

I donot agree with this conclusion at all and in fact I believe relying on a single technology and single network is not prone to the same fallacious "telecom as a natural monopoly" argument that we encountered in the era of copper line access. It will most probabaly lead to the same regulatory headaches in the future.

A comparison with Korea is available at  "NBN vs the world: The Korean experience." The success  achieved through an emphasis on developing the entire broadband eco-system is evident.

"[Korea] developed e-health, e-learning and e-government services when it began constructing its broadband networks... which allowed the government to pinpoint early on where problems were and commercialise the technology earlier. This allowed citizens to become accustomed to online services such as online banking and e-trade."

Most importantly,

"The Korean government has also put in place a competitive environment to allow as many broadband operators as possible...We’re seeing a very aggressive campaign from their government... promoting and making broadband networks available. One thing that we can learn is that there is a place for government to put into place policies and best practice to ensure that operators are able to make available the services that the customers want

The Government in my view should do just that, promote through regulation and policy rather than get involved in actual roll outs.

A detailed description of New Zealands's  Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) initiative and the Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI) is available in an article titled, "NBN vs. the world: The New Zealand experience." The article 

Another article "NZ gov seeks submissions on telco regulation" describes the proposed review of New Zealand's Telecommunications Act 2001 which in its first phase will examine will examine "whether the current regulatory framework is adequate for New Zealand’s migration from legacy copper infrastructure to fibre networks and discuss pricing components of the current regulatory framework."

What I liked was the focus on "competition for end-users, how the commercial interests of access providers and seekers can be promoted and how to effectively encourage investment for the long-term benefit of end-users." and " innovation in the telco market and deregulation in instances where there is sufficient competition."

India needs to pay attention as we often review telecom policy from the technology end rather than focus on consumer benefits and work backwards. We also rarely commence our analysis with competition as the desirable end result.

Previous posts on Competition, Broadband Networks and National and National Broadband Plans may also be seen.


State Speared Fibre Roll outs-NBN

Australia's NBN is almost always in the news for political reasons. An article titled, "Quest for 21st Century Broadband: A Tale from Down Under" also mentions  problems of slow roll out and slow uptake apart fro  NBN being the subject of "political football."

Thus it is written therein that,

 "The project had only reached 207,500 homes at the end of June, well below its target of 341,000. And only 70,100 of those with access to the network had signed up as paying customers......

 ....Work had to stop earlier this year when deadly asbestos was found in the pits where workers were laying new fiber cabling, and some sections of the network had to be redone in the nation’s capital Canberra because of poor workmanship.  The latest blow came on Monday, when the the Government-owned NBN Co. announced it would have to find new contractors to install fiber cabling in homes in South Australia and Western Australia."

Perhaps the problem lies in the size of the venture being implemented by a single telecom operator. Readers may also like to see "Broadband Networks through the Infrastructure Sharing Route" where I have described projects for state/regional OFC network roll outs by USOF India where the implementing USP is selected through bidding. Also see posts on Broadband Networks

Monday, 5 August 2013

Cheap Smartphones & the Broadband Ecosystem

The Economic Times today carries an article about Government panning sub $100 smartphones to boost broadband penetration. As per TRAI, India has about 15 million broadband subscribers and about 143 million access internet through wireless.Clearly with  negligible wire lines in access, last mile connectivity in India will be wireless and mobile devices are therefore critical to broadband access.

It is reported that a telecom official stated that, 
"A fully-functional smartphone is no longer an object of desire but an instrument of empowerment ," the official said. He added that since smartphone affordability remains the biggest hurdle to broadband penetration in India, the world's second largest mobile phone market, the government is exploring ways to encourage the biggest handset makers to produce sub- $100 advanced smartphones on a large scale that will come pre-loaded with the latest entertainment applications and also support mobile banking, telemedicine, education to even farming applications like e-krishi."
One viewpoint is that affordability of smart phones is a key driver of broadband penetration.

 "This, mainly since the average global price of such devices continued to hover around $130 (Rs 7,800), the main reason why barely 5% of the Indian population has till date upgraded to genuine smartphones despite the country's 70 %-plus telecom penetration levels.."
 In my view affordability of devices is a necessary but not sufficient condition for universalizing broadband access especially for rural India which has negligible broadband penetration. On the supply side, we also need good quality and affordable  connectivity (absent even in urban areas at present) and on the demand side we need locally relevant content in vernacular languages as well universal accessibility to cater to needs of disabled, illiterate and aged populations. As readers may recall, I has commented earlier on news about a probability of USOF India subsidizing mobile devices for rural poor. My views on this subject may also be seen in previous posts on Broadband Ecosystem

Saturday, 3 August 2013

Need for Innovative Regulation-Indian Telecom Sector

On the occasion of the Confederation of Indian Industries National Telecom Summit 2013, The Hon'ble Minister of Communications & IT, the Chief of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India and the Telecom Secretary have all highlighted important elements of the way forward to achieve the goals of universal digital inclusion and to boost the health of the flagging telecom sector in India. 

I am focusing more on the issues affecting the Market efficiency Gap in this blog post.

The need to concentrate of local R&D and design capabilities in manufacturing, the need to improve regulatory certainty including issues like M&A and spectrum and unified licensing were highlighted.  

The TRAI chief  stressed  "on  the critical need to use telecom infrastructure for public service in the fields of disaster management, financial inclusion and digital transactions, in the long term." (source: http://www.ciol.com/ciol/news/192836/government-committed-boost-telecom-sector)

Most importantly the telecom secretary stated that, "[i]nnovation in regulation is also important though legacy issues are there,..... there were complex legacy issues involved in order to fix unpredictability and ambiguity in the regulatory regime." (source: http://www.ciol.com/ciol/news/192860/innovation-regulation-farooqui)

In my view, taking stock of past mistakes, resolving legacy issues and creating a simple but  clearly refined regulatory framework for telecommunications can go a long way to rectify past problems and create a conducive environment for growth of Indian Telecommunications. Please see my earlier posts on Telecom Regulation.

Of course the legal framework of the  telecommunications sector is a part of the overall legal/regulatory framework of the economy which too needs looking at. One of these areas lies in the realm of competition policy. An overarching competition policy framework would prevent many a poor policy /programme from being accepted and would strengthen the ability of regulators and policy makers to make economically wiser decisions. I have written about this is an article titled "Airwaves, Incumbents and Good Governance - The Urgent Need for a Robust Competition Policy Framework" Also, please see my previous posts on Competition.

Continuously Declining Wire Lines in India

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India's latest Performance Indicators Report (January-March 2013) indicates that the wire line teledensity of the country has further declined from 2.52% to 2.47%. In Urban areas, wire line teledensity is 6.29% while in rural areas it is 0.79%. The market share of PSUs in wir line market is about 80%. Though not a part of this report, in rural areas the market share of the incumbent, PSU BSNL in wire lines is 99.9%.

The state of wire line penetration is closely related to negligible rural broadband penetration. While as I had written earlier, there are many regulatory issues contributing to this scenario, it is noteworthy that this situation is in spite of considerable USF support to BSNL for rural wire lines and broadband. My post titled "Regulation and USFs-Support for Rural Wire lines in India" had drawn attention to the fact that,about 98.6% of USOF funding has gone to support rural wire lines for voice and broadband connectivity. However BSNL which is the recipient of more than 86%  of USOF’s  total subsidy pay out  continues to steadily lose  rural wire line connections. These could have been maintained, improved and expanded by BSNL to provide broadband to rural areas. Much of this infrastructure was  put in place before BSNL was carved out of the Department of Telecommunications. It thus  represents a large amount of government investment besides presenting a huge competitive advantage for BSNL, considering  that it owns 99.9% of rural wire lines and rural India has negligible broadband penetration. This advantage has not been leveraged by BSNL. Nor has unbundling of this infrastructure been carried out in spite of regulatory recommendations. Further, against a Rs 1500 crore scheme initiated in January 2009 to support rural wire line basedbroadband with a scope to add about  18,00,000  connections (with subsidy being linked to the number of connections) BSNL had added less 400000 connections over a period of 3 years.

I had commented earlier that laxity in maintaining competitive neutrality of USF interventions tends to have long term negative implications on  the affected markets and defeats the very purpose of Universal Service.

Friday, 2 August 2013

One Size Does Not Fit All: US and Unique Needs


I have written earlier about reforms of USA's Universal Service Programme. A news item titled, "FCC suspends some cuts in rural high-cost support funding" tells us that FCC has announced that the suspension of its cuts in case of rural Alaska  planned as a part of its High Cost programme reforms. It has been stated by FCC that,

  “These measures will provide additional predictability and certainty for rate-of-return carriers as the Bureau works to adjust the benchmarking methodology as directed by the Commission through an open and transparent process.”

As explained in this article, "The Connect America Fund was designed to ensure that consumers in rural, insular and high cost areas have access to modern communications networks at rates comparable to those in urban areas. The program provides federal reimbursement to certain eligible carriers for some of the costs of serving rural communities."

As said by the Chairman of the American Indian and Alaska Native Affairs Subcommittee
 “The reforms they are suspending today is great news for rural Alaska, and is confirmation of what we have been trying to tell them this whole time: Alaska is different." He also emphasized that it has unique needs.

It has been recognized across the world that top down one size fit all approach will not work and Universal Service Funds and programmes must allow more stakeholder collaboration and bottom up projects to cater to different needs of geographies and communities.

Readers can also see  previous posts on U.S.A's Universal Service Programmes,  International Experience and related articles w.r.t  Indian USOF.


Delhi College (LSR) shows us the way-ICTs for PwDs

ICTs can play a critical role in empowering the disabled. My views on the potential of ICTs to empower Persons with Disabilities (PwDs) are presented in the exhibit  below:

The Potential of ICTs for PwDs (Archana.G.Gulat at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1970714)

 
I am proud to share a news item about my alma mater Lady Shri Ram College planning a resource centre for its disabled students as part of its equal-opportunity centre. It will be called  Swavalamban (self-reliance).

"It is a state-of-the-art facility equipped with latest assistive technology aimed at promoting self-reliance and independence among disabled students. The resource centre is endowed with a braille embosser, screen reading software, lex-cam scanner, book scanner, DAISY recorders as well as 10 computer systems with OCR software in both English and Hindi," said Kanika Khandelwal, the college's media coordinator.The resource centre will be fully functional from the upcoming academic year."LSR has the highest intake of disabled students and we do our utmost to ensure their academic, economic and cultural development," said Khandelwal.Last year, LSR had 12 visually impaired students and the college held computer literacy workshops, personality development seminars and other self-help programmes for their benefit. The equal-opportunity centre, Swavalamban, was initiated in 2007 and primarily supports blind students through training in JAWS and SAFA. Apart from computer skills, this centre also imparts entrepreneurial skills through interactive workshops on chocolate making, art and craft and candle-making.The college also provides scholarships to deserving students and conducts training programmes, workshops and field trips."

Please also read previous posts on this subject. 


Ubiquitous Broadband Demands Innovative Solutions

An EU study has found that "71% of all EU wireless data traffic in 2012 was delivered to smartphones and tablets using Wi-Fi, possibly rising to 78% by 2016" 

and that,


"The combined use of Wi-Fi and other small cell infrastructures (which complement traditional macro cell mobile base stations) can relieve congestion on the 3G/4G networks by providing “backhaul” functionality outside those networks, while minimising costs to both network operators and users. Wider use of these technologies could allow operators to save tens of billions of euros as they go about upgrading networks to meet customer demand. Consumers would save money by using Wi-Fi instead of paying for mobile data when they are actually near a Wi-Fi hotspot. Small cells can also extend network coverage into hard to reach places, including inside large buildings.

The study recommends to make spectrum from 5150 MHz to 5925 MHz available globally for Wi Fi; to continue making the 2.6 GHz and the 3.5 GHz bands fully available for mobile use and to consult on future licensing options for 3.5 GHz and other potential new licensed mobile frequency bands; and to reduce the administrative burden on the deployment of off-load services and networks in public locations."

There are important lessons here for India where scare and expensive 2G/3G spectrum drives up the price of wireless internet/broadband such that it is quite unaffordable for most people. On the other hand, given the low fixed line penetration, the growth in broadband is expected to come largely from wireless access.